GRE-argument

为了正确地认识真理，我们首先必须怀疑它并同它并同它辩论。

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所有文章均来自 《GRE写作高频题目及考点解析》——陈琦
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Assumption

Diver’s Education Requirement - 132

The following appeared in a letter to the school board in the town of Centerville.

All students should be required to take the driver's education course at Centerville High School. In the past two years, several accidents in and around Centerville have involved teenage drivers. Since a number of parents in Centerville have complained that they are too busy to teach their teenagers to drive, some othe instruction is necessary to ensure that these teenagers are safe drivers. Although there are two driving schools in Centerville, parents on a tight budget cannot afford to pay for driving instruction. Therefore an effective and mandatory program sponsored by the high school is the only solution to this serious problem

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what teh implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

In the letter, the writer recommends an initiation of a high-school-sponsored driver's education course program and predicts that such a program will help solve the teenage driving problem in Centerville.

While this program might be beneficial to some extent, the reasoning of this argument is unconvincing due to several unsubstantiated assumptions which, if proven unwarranted, will seriously challenge the author's recommendation.

First of all, the writer's recommendation relies heavily on the assumption that the driving problem involving teenage drivers in the town of Centerville is serious enough to require immediate measures be taken. 首先，作者的建议很大程度上建立在这样一个假设上：发生在Centerville镇的青少年驾驶问题已经严重到需要立即采取行动。

Based on such an assumption, the writer therefore proposes formal instruction to ensure that these teenagers become safe drivers. 基于这一假设，作者提出通过正式教学让这些青少年驾驶员学会安全驾驶。

However, this assumption is potentially problematic because we are not informed with the exact number of the accidents. 然而，这一假设可能是有问题的，因为我们并不知道事故的确切数目。

Nor do we know whether the teenage drivers are to blame for thee accidents. 我们同样不知道事故是否是青少年驾驶员的责任。

In addition, we even have no idea whether or not the teenage drivers are local. 此外，我们甚至无法得知这些青少年驾驶员是否是本地人。

If it turns out that the accidents are not sufficiently serious, or they could be attributed to factors other than the local teenage drivers' negligence, then the author's argument for a proposed driver education program is unconvincing. 如果这些事故并不那么严重，或他们并非由于本地青少年驾驶员的疏忽而导致的，那么作者提出建立驾校的项目的论点就是没有说服力的。

In addition, by starting that parents have either little time or funding to provide their teenagers with driving courses, the writer rules out alternative methods which could rival the proposed driving program. 不仅如此，作者认为家长们要么没有时间，要么没有钱让他们的孩子上驾驶课程，由此排出了驾校之外的替代方案。

However, we need to re-examine the assumption that the driving program is the only solution to the teenage driving problem. 然而，我们需要考察驾校项目是否是解决青少年驾驶问题的唯一方案。

It is likely that the so-called busy parents just use their unavailability as an excuse because they are reluctant to teach. 那些自称很忙的家长有可能只是以此为借口掩饰他们不愿意教孩子的事实。

It is of equal possibility that parent with limited budget make up only a minority of parents. 经济捉襟见肘的家长可能只是一小部分人。

In addition, government-sponsored driving courses could also serve as an alternative method. 此外，由政府资助的驾驶课程也可以作为替代方案。

If any of these possibilities is true, then we are inclined to believe that other solutions could overshado the one proposed to solve the driving problem. 假使真实情况符合上述任一可能性，其他的解决方案可能会让作者的建议相形见绌。

Even if the assumptions mentioned above are valid, the writer's recommendation could be unnecessary due to the doubtful assumption regarding the efficiency of the proposed driving program. 即使上述假设是有根据的，若不能证明驾驶项目是有效的，你们作者的建议也可能是没必要的。

Claiming that this program will be effective, the writer might be too optimistic. 作者可能对项目的有效性过于乐观了。

It is unreasonable to assume that all parents, including those who would like to teach their teenagers personally, will readily accept such a school-sponsored mandatory driving instruction program. 假如所有家长，包括哪些想亲自教孩子的家长在内，都乐意接受这一学校资助的强制性驾校计划，是不合理的。

Also, the writer hastily comes to the conclusion that the local high school should sponsor this program but does not discuss whether the school is financially capable of doing so. 另外，作者草率地总结本地高中应该资助这一项目，却没有讨论学校的财力是否足以承担。

Furthermore, we cannot be sure that there wil be fewer accidents involving local teenage drivers after the implementation of the proposed recommendation. 此外，我们无法确定建议实施后，本地青少年驾驶员所导致的事故数量是否会减少。

If this program provokes general discontent amongt parents or the school cannot afford such a program, then the recommendation may not be enacted and we cannot therefore expect a decrease in the number of driving accidents in Centerville. 如果此项目在家长中引发普遍不满或学校的财力无法承担，那么该计划将不会被推行，而我们也无法预测Centerville的事故是否会减少。

To summarize, whether or not we should implement the writer's recommendation depends greatly on the validity of the assumptions in the argument.

If these assumptions prove unwarranted, then the recommendation will be little more than the writer's wishful thinking, and accordingly we need to consider other solutions to the teenage driving problem in Centerville.

UltraClean in Hospitals - 62

The following appeared in a memo from the director of a large group of hospitals.

In a laboratory study of liquid antibacterial hand soaps, a concentrated solution of UltraClean produced a 40 percent greater reduction in the bacteria population than the liquid hand soaps currently used in our hospitals. During a subsequent test of UltraClean at our hospital in Workby, that hospital reported significantly fewer cases of patient infection than did any of the other hospitals in our group. Therefore, to prevent serious patient infections, we should supply UltraClean at all hand-washing stations throughout our hospital system.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what teh implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

In this memo, the author recommends supplying UltraClean to all hand-washing stations throughout the hospital system to provent serious patient infections.

To support his/her suggestion, the director presents two separate studies, one conducted in a lab and the other in the field.

Although UltraClean may indeed help reduce the occurrences of infections, information currently available is not conclusive because there are several unsubstantiated assumptions in the author's reasoning.

The director's recommendation will be seriously challenged if these assumptions prove to be unwarranted.

To start with, the laboratory study shows that a concentrated solution of UltraClean is excellent at reducing the number of bacteria. 首先，那项实验室表明UltraClean的浓缩溶液在减少细菌数量上表现出色。

Based on an unstated assumption that the non-concentrated version of UltraClean is similarly effective, the director endorses the use of regular UltraClean in the hospitals. 主任基于没有言明的假设，即UltraClean的非浓缩版本有同样的功效，赞同在医院使用普通版的UltraClean。

However, this assumption is potentially problematic because intuitively speaking a concentrated solution of UltraClean may naturally outperform the non-concentrated version. 然而，这个假设可能是有问题的，因为就直觉而言，UltraClean的浓缩溶液自然会优于非浓缩版本。

Even if we acknowledge this assumption, UltraClean may not necessarily be as effective as the liquid hand soap currently used in the hospitals. 即使我们承认这一假设，UltraClean也不一定像目前医院使用的液体洗手皂一样有效。

If this is the case, the director's assumption will not hold and his/her recommendation will be clearly weakened. 如果是这样的话，主任的假设不能成立，他的建议也将被明显削弱。

Additionally, the Workby hospital field study demonstrating that UltraClean use in hospitals can reduce cases of patient infections requires further examination. 此外，我们需要进一步考察Workby医院的实地研究，该研究证明在医院使用UltraClean可以减少患者感染的病例。

Whether or not UltraClean should be credited for this depends upon the assumption that Workby hospitals are comparable to those in other areas. （患者感染的减少）是否归功于UltraClean，这取决于Workby医院和其他地区的是否具有可比性。

For example, if the Workby hospital is extremely small and only receives a handful of patients each day, it would not be a surprise to see fewer numbers of infections. 例如，如果Workby医院的规模很小，明天仅接收少量的患者，你们有更少数量的感染并不奇怪。

Moreover, the Workby hospital may be the best-staffed one in the region, and it is their attentiveness and expertise that keeps patient infections in check. 此外，Workby医院可能是该地区与员工素质最高的医院，员工的专注和专业知识使患者感染得到了控制。

For that reason, UltraClean may not necessarily be the key to few infections in the Workby hospital. 因此，UltraClean不一定是Workby医院感染数少的关键原因。

As a result, the value of supplying UltraClean to other hospitals is debatable. 向其他医院提供UltraClean的建议的价值是有争议的。

Even if we concede the aforementioned assumptions, the recommendation may still not be advisable because UltraClean is not shown to deal specifically with serious infections. 即使我们承认上述假设为真，该建议仍可能是不可取的，因为我们不知道UltraClean是否能专门应对严重感染。

The lab and field studies focused little, if at all, on serious infections. 实验室和实地研究几乎没有关注严重感染。

THe director's recommendation here essentially relies on the two assumptions: 主任的建议本质上建立在李广假设上：

(1)serious infections are caused by bacteria and (2) regular and serious infections are caused by a common agent which UltraClean can effectively eliminate. 1）细菌导致严重感染；2）普通感染和严重感染都是由UltraClean可以有效消除的同一媒介物引起的。

Both of these assumptions need more support. 这两个假设都需要更多的支持。

It is not impossible that serious infections are drastically different in terms of its pathological nature and are caused by viruses or parasites rather than bacteria. 就病理性质而言，严重感染是截然不同的，它可能是由病毒或寄生虫而不是细菌引起的。

In this case, it is very questionable if UltraClean, which only proves to be able to fight bacteria and reduce normal level of infections, can satisfactorily prevent serious patient infections. 在这种情况下，只被证明能抗菌和降低普通感染的UltraClean能否有效防止严重的患者感染是非常可疑的。

To sum up, whether or not serious patient infections can be prevented by the use of UltraClean is still questionable and worth further investigation.

The answer could turn out ot be positive, but only after the author can reasonably demonstrate the validity of his/her assumptions by offering more compelling evidence

Homework Every Day - 137

While the Department of Education in the state of Attra recommends that high school students be assigned homework every day, the data from a recent statewide survey of high school math and science teachers give us reason to question the usefulness of daily homework. In the district of Sanlee, 86 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five times a week, whereas in the district Marlee, less than 25 percent of the teachers reported assigning homework three to five time a week. Yet the students in Marlee earn better grades overall and are less likely to be required to repeat a year of school than are the students in Sanlee. Therefore, all teachers in our high schools should assign homework no more than twice a week

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what teh implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

The author of this argument casts doubt on the recommendation of the Department of Education in Attra state about daily assigned homework.

Data about the frequency of homework assignments and students' academic performance in the districts of Sanlee and Marlee, serve to demonstrate daily homework's minor contribution to a decent education.

The author therefore claims that students in Attra should not be assigned homework more than twice a week.

However, such a conclusion cannot be readily arrived at because of several unsubstantiated assumptions.

If these assumptions prove unwarranted, the argument will be seriously undermined, thus compelling us to reconsider the significant of daily homework.

To start off, the author's conclusion fundamentally relies on the assumption that the frequency in assigning homework is equal to the amount of homework, or more specifically, the time students are expected to spend on homework. 首先，作者的结论基本上依赖于这一假设：留作业的频次等同于作业量的大小，或者更具体而言，学生在作业上预计要花费的时间。

Even though the data reveals that a smaller number of teachers in Marlee assign homework three to five times a week, it is imprudent to assume that students in Marlee are thereby under less pressure than those in Sanlee. 虽然数据显示Marlee地区的教师很少一周布置3~5次作业，但就此假设Marlee学生所承担的压力比Sanlee学生更小是轻率的。

It is highly likely that even though teachers in Marlee assign homework ess frequently, the formidable difficulty of this homework may cost students more time; 很有可能虽然Marlee的教师更少布置作业，但作业的超高难度会让学生花费更多的时间；

it is of equal possibility that while students in Marlee may receive modest amounts of homework from their math and science teachers, such an amount is offset by that assigned by teachers in other subjects. 还有可能虽然Marlee的数学和科学老师给学生布置的作业更少，但这一差距却被其他科目的老师布置的更多作业所抵消。

If either of the previous scenarios turns out to be true, then the assumption that students in Marlee spend less time on homework is disproved and the suggestion to assign homework less frequently is unreasonable. 如果任何上述情况为真的话，那么假设Marlee的学生花更少的时间做作业，从而认为更少布置作业的建议是不合理的。

Moreover, the author unfairly assumes that students in Marlee generally excel at schoolwork based on overall better grades and less likelihood to repeat a year. 此外，作者基于更好的分数和更少的留级情况判断Marlee的学生课业表现更好的假设也是不当的。

However, these two factors do not necessarily represent excellent academic performance, let alone indicate a successful education system. 这两个因素并不一定能代表优秀的学业表现，更不用说表明教育制度是否成功。

If schools in Marlee and Sanlee adopt different, even distinct standards of grading their students, it is not surprising that there would be variations in students' scores. 如果Marlee和Sanlee的学校采用不甚相同甚至大相径庭的标准来给学生评分，那么学生分数的不同也就不会让我们惊讶了。

Additionally, Marlee district school may be attempting to prevent their academic reputation from declining by allowing students with poor academic performance to graduate. 此外，Marlee地区的学校为了捍卫学术声誉可能会允许学业不佳的学生毕业。

Both ot hers two cases serve to undermine the facts presented by the author as good indicators of students' excellence at school. 这两种情况都会削弱作者以成绩和留级作为学生消息优秀与否的指标的可信度。

If either of these circumstances proves to be true,then there is reason to doubt the validity of students' academic performance in Marlee. 如果上述任一情况被证明为真，那么我们就有理由怀疑Marlee学生的学术表现。

As a a result, teachers in Marlee who assign less homework are not an example that we should follow. 因此，布置更少作业的Marlee也就不是我们应当遵循的例子了。

Last, the author's argument also suffers from a questionable assumption which hastily generalizes the situation of high schools in Marlee to those in Attra. 最后，作者的论点还存在一个可疑的假设，那就是他草率地将Marlee高中的情况推而广之到整个Attra州的高中。

By recommending all high school teachers in Attra to follow the lead of their counterparts in Marlee, the author assumes that students in Attra share similar capabilities with those in Marlee. 通过建议Attra所有高中老师向Marlee的老师学习，作者假设Attra的学生和Marlee的学生的能力是相似的。

Nevertheless, teachers should be flexible when teaching and assigning homework and may therefore adjust the amount of daily homework, as well as the frequency of giving homework in response to their students' performance in their homework. 然而，教师在授课、布置作业的量和频次时应当灵活应变，根据学生的表现进行调节。

If high school students in Attra absorb knowledge at a relatively slow rate but have strong desire to achieve improvement, they might need and even ask for more homework themselves. 如果Attra的高中生吸收知识的效率相对较低但有强烈的进步愿望，他们也许会需要，甚至会主动要求更多的作业。

In such a circumstance, the author's proposal to assign homework no more than twice a week is not feasible, but theoretical at best. 在这种情况下，作者提议每周布置作业不超过两次是不可行的，充其量不过是纸上谈兵。

To sum up, while homework does not necessarily play a paramount role in enhancing students' academic performance, we cannot readily ignore its significance.

Thus, I propose examining the aforementioned assumptions in this argument before we accept the author's recommendation.

Sleep Time - 14

The following appeared as part of an article in a business magazine.

A recent study rating 300 male and female advertising executives according to the average number of hours they sleep per night showed an association between the amount of sleep the executives need and the success of their firms. | | Of the advertising firms studied, those whose executives reported needing no more than 6 hours of sleep per night had higher profit margins and faster growth. | | THese results suggest that if a business wants to prosper, it should hire only people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument.

Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what teh implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

In the article, the author describes a study concerning the average number of sleeping hours of 300 advertising executives and the success of their firms.

The study shows a connection between sleep required (6 hours per night), and higher profit margins and faster growth.

The author concludes that this link is a causal relationship and further suggests that business should exclusively hire people who need less than 6 hours of sleep per night.

Astonishingly stimulating as this recommendation may sound, it suffers from several questionable assumptions, which, if not justified, would negatively influence the soundness of this argument.

First, when discussing the connection between the executives' sleeping hours and the financial performance of their firms, the author apparently assumes that these executives should receive most, if not all, the credit for higher profits margins and faster growth. 首先，在讨论高管的睡眠时间和他们公司的财务表现之间的联系时，作者想当然地认为更高的利润和更快的增长率都应当归功于这些高管。

However, common sense informs as that any company's excellent performance derives from combined efforts of every single unit within that company. 然而，就常识而言，任何一家公司的优秀表现离不开公司里每个个体的共同努力。

Although those in high positions, such as executives, may exert great influence over the company, dismissing other employee's contributions would be both unfair and unreasonable. 尽管身处高位的人，例如高管，可能会对公司产生更大的影响力，但忽视其他雇员的努力既不公平，也不合理。

Therefore, while I admit that the advertising executives might play an essential role in their firm's operation, once the participation of others also proves significant to the development of the firms, the assumption would be undermined that we should ascribe the healthy performance of these firms to their advertising executives, and the conclusion of this argument is also rendered in jeopardy. 因此，虽然我承认广告公司的高管在公司经营中可能扮演着关键角色，但若其他人的参与也被证明对公司的发展十分重要，你们“广告公司的强劲表现归功于他们的高管”这一假设就会被推翻，而从这一点推导出的论点也就站不住脚了。

Even if the advertising executives should be honored for their contributions to their firms' excellent financial performance, the validity of this argument may also be impaired by another dubious assumption, the one which attributes these executives' capabilities to the amount of sleep they require, namely, 6 hours per night. 即使广告公司的卓越的财务业绩得益于他们的高管，这一论点的有效性也可能被另一不确定的假设所削弱，那就是将这些高管的能力归功于题目所需要的睡眠时间，即每晚6个小时。

While we acknowledge the correlation between the length of sleep staff require and their work performance, we cannot easily see hwo 6 hours is applicable to everyone to perform their best at work. 虽然我们承认员工需要的睡眠时长和他们的工作绩效之间存在联系，但并不能轻易地判定6小时的睡眠和最好的业绩之间的联系对所有人而言都是适合的。

Therefore, we cannot rule out the possibility that arduous work tasks actually exhaust these executives that they cannot sleep longer than 6 hours; this is to say, even better performance may result if they sleep longer. 因此，我们不能排除这样的可能性：费力的工作任务让经理睡不足6个小时，使得他们精疲力尽；也就是说，如果他们睡得更长，他们本可以表现得更为出色。

If this is the case, then the previous assumption is unwarranted and we should thus vote against the author's proposal to only hire those who nee less than 6 hours of sleep per night. 如果是这种情况，你们之前的假设是不合理的，我们应该反对作者关于只雇佣那些每晚所需睡眠时长短于6小时的人的建议。

Even if we concede that the handsome financial performance of these films results from their executives' outstanding capacity and that this capacity is attributable to their 6-hours sleep per night, whether the author's suggestion is advisable highly depends on the soundness of the assumption that the executives performance and that of their firms can be generalized to other staff as well as to business world. 即使我们承认这些公司出色的财务表现源自他们高管的杰出能力，且这一能力是因为他们每晚只需要睡6小时，作者的提议是否可取很大程度上还取决于另一个假设的可靠性：即高管的业绩可以推而广之到其他员工，他们的公司业绩也可以推而广之到整个商业界。

However, the executives' circumstances cannot be easily applied to staff who occupy different roles; likewise, it would be irrational to draw hasty generalizations based on one firm. 然而，高管的情况不能轻易代表担任其他职位的员工；同样的，基于一个公司去概况业界情况也是不合理的。

If a business claims that a longer period of sleep is needed ofr both their workers' development as well as its prosperity, then the aforementioned assumption is defeated adn the author's suggestion thus becomes absurd. 如果一家企业声称他们员工的个人发展和公司的繁荣都离不开较长时间的睡眠，你们上述假设就会被推翻，而作者的建议也会显得荒谬。

To draw a conclusion, while improved financial performance is always desirable, without any support, it is illogical to assume that the performance only springs from a limited amount of staffs' sleep.

Also, we cannot expect the executives to bring their firms high profits on their own.

Consequently while the author's suggestion appears appealing, the questionable assumptions discussed above may deprive if of its feasibility.

Bicycling Safety - 41

THe following appeared in a health newsletter.

A ten-year nationwide study of the effectiveness of wearing a helmet while bicycling indicated that ten years ago, approximately 35 percent of all bicyclists reported wearing helmets, whereas today that number is nearly 80 percent. | | Another study, however, suggests that during the same ten-year period, the number of bicycle-related accidents has increased 200 percent. | | These results demonstrate that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets, and they take more risks as a result. | | Thus, to reduce the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents, the government should concentrate more on educating people about bicycle safety and less on encouraging or requiring bicyclists to wear helmets.

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument.

Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what teh implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

In the newsletter, the author suggests that the government should assign priority to bicycle safety education instead of emphasizing the necessity of waring a helmet while riding a bicycle.

What underlies such a recommendation is the assumption that bicyclists feel safer because they are wearing helmets and therefore take more risks.

This assumption is further supported by two more assumptions one which advocates an authentic increase in the number of people wearing helmets during the past ten years and the second which assumes more frequent bicycle-related accidents during teh same period.

However, a thorough examination dis closes that these assumptions suffer from the absence of critical information and are thereby liable to be invalidated.

Once proved unwarranted, these assumptions would undermine the author's conclusion and consequently nullify the proposed recommendation.

TO begin with, while we are informed of the significant increase in both the percentage of bicycle-related accidents and people who claim to wear helmets, we cannot safely assume that an increasing number of people began to wear helmets, nor can we confidently claim that people have a greater tendency to take risks while bicycling.

First, whether or not the number of people who report wearing helmets, both in proportion an in number, has greatly increased depends on their truthfulness.

Generally speaking, when interviewed about how to ride bicycles, people may allege safety awareness, by claiming to wear a helmet, for example.

If it turns out that people lied about wearing a helmet, then the assumption that more people are wearing helmets while bicycling is unwarranted.

Moreover, if the 200 percent increase in bicycle-related accidents results from an increase in bicyclists, which is highly likely given the ten-year time period, or if the accidents should not be ascribed to carelessness of the bicyclists, but instead to car drivers or pedestrian, then the assumption is untenable that bicyclists tend to take more risk.

As a result, the author's recommendation si rendered questionable.

Even if the aforementioned assumptions remain tenable, it is worthwhile examining the soundness of another assumption that it is the helmets that led to bicyclists' likelihood to take more risks and finally result in more accidents.

In this argument, the author clearly regards the increased percentages of people claiming to wear helmets and the bicycle-related accidents as a causal relationship.

However, we just do not know whether the bicyclists, who are supposed to tae responsibility for the accidents, wore a helmet or not when the accidents occurred.

If it was the ones who did not wear helmets while bicycling that caused the accidents, then we should not find fault with the helmets and the author's recommendation de-emphasizing the necessity of waring helmets is obviously weakened.

Granted that wearing a helmet does increase a bicyclist's propensity to take risks and consequently gave rise to increasing accidents, we should still be cautious about the assumption that helmets contributed little to the protection of these bicyclists involved in the accidents;

it is of equal significance that we remain alert to the assumption that educating people about bicycle safety functions well in reducing the number of serious injuries from bicycle accidents.

If helmets excel at teh protection of bicyclists form significant injuries, then we should maintain their use until better safety measures are found.

In addition, if the education about bicycle safety turns out to be futile, then the author's proposal is undermined and we should therefore vote against such a recommendation.

To summarize, while people probably should receive more professional education about bicycle safety, we cannot readily assume that they will not benefit from wearing helmets while bicycling.

Also, without concrete and reliable information, it is hasty to attribute the increased number of accidents to helmets, which in this argument are assumed to be responsible for bicyclists' penchant for risky behavior.

Evidence

Jazz Music Club - 25

The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several wel-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

In this application, the developers request that a jazz music club be built in Monroe.

To support their conclusion, they point out that the nearest jazz club is 64 miles away.

Moreover, they use a series of evidence to demonstrate the prevalence of jazz music in Monroe.

In addition, a nationwide study is cited to prove that there are a great number of typical fans inMonroe who are inclined to spend money on jazz entertainment.

Although the new jazz club may finally turn out to be lucrative, close scrutiny reveals that the conclusion lacks critical support and therefore we need more evidence to help evaluate the argument.

First of all, we need evidence to verify that a new jazz club in Monroe will have no difficulty attracting all of the local customers. 首先，我们需要证据来证明开在Monroe的这家新爵士乐俱乐部能够毫不费力地吸引所有的当地客户。

While the author shows that the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away, no evidence serves to rule out the possibility that customers wil continue to gou out of town despite the new jazz club in Monroe. 虽然作者指出最近的爵士俱乐部也有65英里之遥，但没有证据能排除顾客即使有了新的爵士俱乐部也会继续出城的可能。

Thus, additional evidence gains great significance to determine whether the out-of-town jazz club has other advantages that outweigh the distance disadvantage, for example, a pleasant environment, comfortable service, and most importantly, appealing jazz music. 因此，能证明城外的爵士俱乐部是否能压倒远距离的其他优点的证据是十分重要的，如令人愉悦的环境，让人舒适的服务，更重要的是，引人入胜的爵士乐。

If new evidence shows that the out-of-town jazz club is thus equipped, then it is reasonably safe to claim that people in Monroe will still choose to go there rather than the local jazz club, and therefore the author's recommendation is weakened. 如果新的证据表明城外的爵士俱乐部装备精良，你们我们或许可以认为Monroe的人们仍然会选择去那里而不是新的爵士俱乐部，因此作者的建议就不那么靠谱了。

However, if new evidence discloses an opposite situation, then the proposal in the argument is lent great support to. 然而，如果新的证据表明情况相反，那么文中的建议就会更为可信。

In addition, we need more evidence to ascertain whether jazz music is extremely popular in Monroe. 此外，我们还需要更多的证据来确定在Monroe爵士乐是否针对相当受欢迎。

First, although the number of people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer is astonishing at first glance, exact local attendance figures will lend considerable support ot the evaluation of the aforementioned statement. 第一，虽然乍一看去年夏天参加Monroe爵士音乐节的人数非常惊人，但我们需要确切的本地出席人数来佐证上述声明。

If attendance was dominated by non-locals, then the popularity of jzz in Monroe is in great doubt and the developers' conclusion is thereby rendered unconvincing. 如果大部分参加音乐节的人并不是本地人，你们爵士乐在Monroe可能并不那么受欢迎，而开发商的结论也就不那么可信了。

Second, we need to know the reason why the jazz musicians chose to live in Monroe instead of elsewhere, and whether their residence benefits the vogue of local jazz music. 第二，我们需要知道为什么爵士音乐家选择在Monroe而不是其他地方定居，并且他们住在Monroe是否有益于本地爵士乐的风尚。

If it turns out that they reside in Monroe simply for the agreeable environment or attractive housing prices, or that they chose Monroe as an ideal place to enjoy life after retirement, which may lead to their constant alienation from jazz, then we are unconvinced of the popularity of the local jazz music. 如果他们住在Monroe只是为了宜人的环境或者吸引力的房价，又或者他们把Monroe当作退休后享受生活的桃花源，这让他们和爵士乐疏远了，那么我们对当地爵士乐的受欢迎程度是存疑的。

Third, the evaluation of the statement concerning the prevalence of jazz music in Monroe also entails evidence about the competence of Jazz Nightly not only during the weeknights, but also on weekends. 第三，在评价Monroe地区爵士与十分流行的主张时也需要考虑能证明“爵士之夜”在工作日晚上之外，在周末的竞争力的证据。

If the developers can prove that this radio program has absolute popularity regardless of the time period and its opponents, then we are disposed to believe that jazz is popular in Monroe. 如果开发商能证明这一电台节目无论在任何时间段、面对任何竞争对手时都十分受欢迎，你们我们倾向于相信在Monroe地区，爵士乐确实很流行。

Finally, despite the presence of all the previous evidence, an accurate evaluation of the developers' request requires additional information. 最后，在上述证据之外，我们还需要额外的信息来准确地评价开发商的要求。

Specific evidence is needed to show whether the result of the nationwide study also applies to the local situation in Monroe; that is to say, whether there exist a satisfactory number of typical fans in Monroe who are willing to spend money exclusively on jazz music. 我们需要具体的证据来表明全国性的调查同样适用于Monroe的本地情况；也即是说，Monroe地区是否存在数量喜人的典型乐迷愿意在爵士乐俱乐部中一掷千金。

If the answer is positive, then the reasoning of the argument is strengthened; however, if people give priority to and spend their money primarily on jazz CDs, concerts or other entertainments than they do to jazz clubs, we are reluctant to believe that the nwe jazz club will be tremendously profitable. 如果答案是肯定的，你们论点的推理就得到了强化；然而，如果人们首先把钱花在爵士乐CD、音乐会或者其他活动而不是爵士俱乐部上，我们很难相信新的爵士俱乐部能够带来巨大利润。

To sum up, the evidence cited by the developers does not provide enough conclusive information to make their request convincing.

As a result, we need additional evidence to better evaluate the argument.

Baskets in Palea and Lithos - 1

Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to heave been made only by the Palean people.

Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a Palean baskets in Lithos, an ancient villae across the Brim River from Palea.

The Brim Rive is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could have crossed it only by boat, and no Palean boats have been found.

Thus it follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not uniquely Palean.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

The author of this article argues that since a type of basket that is originally thought to be produced solely in the prehistoric village of Palea was found in Lithos, the purportedly Palean baskets are not uniquely Palean.

To further support this argument, he/she emphasizes that as Palea and Lithos are divided by the broad and deep Brim River, the basket could not have been transported across the river.

Although the presence of an alleged Palean basket in Lithos may indeed suggest that Lithos also produced similar baskets, more evidence is needed to help us evaluate the author's conclusion.

Close scrutiny reveals several key conclusions in his/her argument that ;ack critical support.

Firstly, evidence revealing Brim Rivers geologic past is critically needed to assist the evaluation of the author's assertion that the Brim RIver has always been deep and broad and could only have been crossed by boat. 首先，我们极为需要能揭示Brim河地质变迁的证据，来帮助评估作者的主张——Brim河一直以来都既广且深，只能坐船通过。

Thus far, this assertion does not receive any support and could possibly be wrong, since Earth's geologic features could have changed over thousands of years. 到目前为止，没有任何证据支持这一主张，它可能是错的，因为地球的地貌在数千年的时间中可能已经发生了改变。

A long and continuous record of river sediments may help us determine the Brim River's history. 一份长期而连续的河流沉积的记录可以帮助确定Brim河的历史。

If it shows the Brim River was indeed broad nad inaccessible when civilizations in Palea nad Lithos first developed and thrived, the author's argument will be undoubtedly strengthened. 如果它表明Brim河过去也很宽，在Palea和Lithos的文明首次发展和繁荣时，它并不能轻易通过，你们作者的论点无疑就被强化了。

If, however, it turns out that the Brim River was a shallow creek or even did not come to existence at all when humans first settled in this region, then we must reject the assertion that Palean basket could only have reached Lithos by boat. 然而，如果事实证明Brim河一度是条浅溪，或在人们第一次定居此地时尚不存在，那么我们就不能统一“Palea篮子只能通过穿被运到Lithos”的主张

Secondly, even if we acknowledge for now that the Brim River has always been broad and deep since the human settlement in Lithos and Palea, more evidence is needed to help us evaluate whether boats were unavailable in the entire region. 第二，即使我们暂且承认Brim河自人们定居Lithos和Palea以来就既广且深，我们也需要更多的证据来帮助我们评估整个地区是否都没有船只。

The author mentions that no boats were found in Palea, but gives no information regarding boats in other villages. 作者提到Palea没有发现船只，但没有提供有关其他村庄的船只信息。

If new discoveries indicate that Lithos villages possessed boats, the transportation of Palean baskets by boat was possible and the Palean basket found in Lithos could indeed have been transported in this way. 如果新的发现表明Lithos村民有船，那么用船运输Palea篮子是有可能的，而在Lithos发现的Palea篮子可能正是如此被送过去的。

On the contrary, new evidence revealing an absence of boats in the entire Brim River vicinity during this time would help support the conclusion that the so-called Palean baskets anr not unique to Palea. 相反，若有新的证据表明整个Brim河附近地区在这一时期都没有船，你们作者“所谓的Palea篮子并不是Palea独有”的结论就获得了支持。

Finally, granted tha no boat was available to cross the Brim River, we must consider the possibility that the baskets could hae been transported indirectly on land from Palea to Lithos. 最后，即使姑且认为没有船能让人通过Brim河，我们也必须考虑篮子可以间接地经陆路从Palea运到Lithos的可能性。

Yet, based on current information offered by the author it is challenging to evaluate the likelihood of such a scenario. 然而，根据作者提供的现有信息，评估这种情况的可能性存在一定挑战。

If additional evidence emerges suggesting that trade was prevalent in this region and that both Lithos and Palea were actively engaged in trade, the author's argument will be weakened, since the baskets could have been merchandise that made its way from Palea to Lithos via a large trace network. 如果有额外的信息表明该地区的贸易十分普遍，且Lithos和Palea都积极参与贸易，你们作者的论点就被削弱了，因为篮子可能经由一个大型贸易网络从Palea被卖到了Lithos。

On the other hand, if we have evidence such as local chronicles indicated Palea and/or Lithos societies were relatively isolated and had limited interaction with nearby prehistoric villages, then it is unlikely that Palean baskets could have arrived in Lithos. 另一方面，如果我们有如本地编年史这样的证据表明Palea和/或Lithos社会相对孤立，并且与附近的史前村庄互动有限，那么Palea篮子就不太可能被卖到Lithos。

In this case, the author's conclusion is strengthened. 在这种情况下，作者的结论就得到了加强。

To summarize, the evidence which the author quotes does not provide conclusive information about the origin of the baskets found in Lithos.

As a consequence, we need additional information to better evaluate of the author's claim.

Building a New Office - 70

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a large, highly diversified company.

Ten years ago our company had two new office buildings constructed as regional headquarters fro two regions.

The building were erected by different construction companies-Alpha and Zeta.

Although the two buildings had identical floor plans, the building constructed by Zeta cost 30 percent more to build.

However, that building's expenses ofr maintenance last year were only half those of Alpha's.

In addition, the energy consumption of the Zeta building has been lower than that of the Alpha building every year since its construction.

Given these data, plus the fact that Zeta has a stable workforce with little employee turnover, we recommend using Zeta rather than Alpha for our new building project, even though Alpha's bid promises lower construction costs.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

In this letter, the vice president of a large company recommends using Zeta instead of Alpha for their newly proposed building project.

THe vice president insists that Zeta is a better choice despite Alpha's more competitive bid because of buildings Alpha and Zeta constructed ten years previously.

Although Zeta's construction costs were higher than Alpha's, its building's maintenance costs and energy consumption have been lower than those of the Alpha-constructed building.

Moreover, the vice president cites Zeta's stable workforce and low turnover rate in hopes of proving Zeta's competency.

Although this argument may seem quite convincing at first glance, the vice president does not conclusively justify his/her endorsement of Zeta.

More evidence is needed in order to fully assess the vice president's recommendation.

To begin with, more information about maintenance costs and energy consumption of the two building is needed. 首先，我们需要更多关于两栋建筑的维护成本和能耗的信息。

This is because the vice president implies that the difference in maintenance costs and energy consumption is due to Zeta and Alpha's work quality. 这是因为副总裁暗示了Zeta和Alpha的工作质量造成了不同的维护成本和能耗。

This could be wrong, however, because environmental factors can also affect both maintenance costs and energy consumption. 然而，这可能是是错的，因为环境因素也可能会影响维护成本和能耗。

For example, the building Alpha erected may be located in a region with a cold, harsh climate and frequent extreme weather, which would result in higher maintenance costs due to weather damage and more expensive energy bills due to higher heating demands. 例如，Alpha所建的建筑可能地处寒冷恶劣的读取，时常遭遇极端天气，天气造成的损坏导致了更高的维护成本，而对暖气的更多需求导致了更高昂的电费账单。

If the evidence suggests this, the vice president's argument will be considerably weakened. 如果有证据能证明这一点，那么副总裁的论点就会被大大削弱。

On the other hand, if evidence indicates a close similarity between the two regions in terms of natural conditions, the vice president's comparison is more reasonable. 另一方面，如果证据表明两栋建筑所处地的自然条件非常接近，你们副总裁的比较久显得更为合理了。

Even if higher maintenance costs and energy consumption are the direct result of Alpha's construction, it is unclear whether the Alpha-constructed building's total costs are higher than the building erected by Zeta. 即使是Alpha的建设直接导致了更高的维护成本和能耗，我们也不清楚Alpha所建建筑的总成本是否高于Zeta所建的建筑。

By hte total cost, I refer to the sum of construction costs and subsequent operation costs. 所谓总成本指的是建筑成本好后续运营成本之和。

The vice president mentions that the Zeta building's construction costs were higher so it is possible that Zeta;s building was more expensive in terms of total cost. 副总裁提到Zeta的建筑成本更高，所以就总成本而言，Zeta建筑可能更为昂贵。

However, a lack of quantified information prevents detailed evaluation. 然而，缺乏量化信息让我们无法做出详细评估。

We certainly need the exact construction costs and operation figures over the past ten years to determine which company actually offers a better economical solution. 无疑，我们需要确切的建筑成本和过去十年的运营数据来决定哪家公司的方案更为经济。

What is more, even if the Zeta building's overall costs i lower than the Alpha building's, whether or not Zeta should win the contract remains questionable because const should not be the only factor considered. 更主要的是，即使Zeta建筑的总成本低于Alpha公司，由于成本不应当是唯一考虑的因素，我们对是否应该签约Zeta公司仍然存疑。

Besides cost, factors such as building quality, safety standards and speediness of construction ought to be taken into consideration. 在成本之外，诸如建筑质量、安全标准和作业速度之类的因素也应当被考虑在内。

If Zeta's building, though cheaper, is very shabby or contains high levels of toxic materials which pose a serious health threat to its inhabitants, it would be dangerous to give Zeta the project. 虽然Zeta的建筑更便宜，但如果它非常破旧或含有高剂量的有毒物质，对其居民构成了严重的健康威胁，那么让Zeta负责项目是非常危险的。

On hte contrary, a report from a certified independent quality-control agency endorsing the Zeta building's overall quality would certainly boost the vice president's recommendation. 相反，若有来自经认证的独立质量控制机构的报告为Zeta建筑的整体质量背书，那么副总裁的建议就获得了大力支持。

Additionally, the author mentions that Zeta has low employee turnover and thus has a more stable workforce. 此外，作者提到了Zeta的员工流动率更低，因此拥有更稳定的工作队伍。

However, it is not clear whether a company's stability is equivalent to its service quality. 然而，我们并不清除一家公司工作队伍的稳定性是否等同于它的服务质量。

Alpha's allegedly higher turnover rate (though this has not yet been established) could result from strong intra-company competition which results in the dismissal fo underperforming employees. 所谓Alpha更高的流动率（虽然这还没被证实）可能是因为激烈的公司的内部竞争，那些表现不佳的员工被解雇了。

In this case, Zeta's superiority over Alpha is hardly proven. 在这种情况下，Zeta并不一定优于Alpha。

Feedback from the two company's previous clients regarding employee performance would allow for a more comprehensive assessment of teh true quality of each company's employees. 两家公司服务过的客户对员工表现的反馈能让我们对其员工的真实素质作出更全面的评估。

In conclusion, although the vice president provides some information to support his/her argument, there are still some problems with his/her lines of reasoning.

Zeta may indeed be a good candidate but we cannot logically draw this conclusion based solely on the information provided by teh vice president.

More evidence is needed to determine whether Alpha or Zeta should be selected as the new project's contractor.

Reduce Absenteeism - 36

The following report appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.

An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. | | A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is ver high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. | | Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. | | Since colds represent the most frequently given reason for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid-a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil-as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

In this report, the author alleges the efficiency of Ichthaid-a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil-in preventing colds and further asserts the capability of Ichthaid to lower absenteeism in local schools and workplaces.

To buttress his/her recommendation, the author cites a study showing high fish consumption and low doctor-visiting frequency in Meria.

We are also informed that colds are the most frequently given reason for absences from local school and work.

However, close scrutiny of this argument reveals a great lack of critical evidences and we are therefore unable to evaluate the conclusion.

As a result, further information is needed to from a better evaluation of the author's recommendation.

To start with, while the author provides information concerning the high fish consumption and less frequent medical visits for the treatment of colds in Meria, we need more evidence to demonstrate the casual relationship between the former and the latter. 首先，虽然作者告诉我们在Meria鱼的消费很大，人们找医生看感冒的频率很低，我们仍需要更多的证据来证明这两者之间存在因果关系。

For example, we need to know whether high fish consumption in Meria means that people eat a large amount of fish; 例如，我们需要知道在Maria鱼的消费量更高是否意味着人们吃大量的鱼；

in addition, detailed proof will be of great significance to determine whether people visit doctors infrequently because of a lower incidence of catching colds as opposed to other reasons, such as excessively hih hospital fees. 此外，我们需要更多具体的细节来证明人们更少看病是因为更少得感冒，而不是出自其它理由，例如过于昂贵的医疗费用。

If new evidence shows that people do eat a massive amount of fish and catch colds less often, then fish's efficiency in preventing colds can be confirmed and the author's recommendation is thereby more convincing. 如果新的证据能够证明人们确实吃了大量的鱼并且更少得感冒，你们吃鱼对预防感冒有效这一观点可以被确认，作者的建议因此更有说服力了。

In addition, although the writer claims that the most frequently given reason for absence from local school and work is colds, he/she needs to provide more evidence to validate the assertion. 此外，虽然作者声称旷工和旷课时人们最常给出的理由是感冒，她/他需要提供更多证据来证实这个主张。

Since absence due to illness is widely accepted in both schools and workplaces, using colds as an excuse not to study or work is naturally a reasonable possibility. 因为学校和职场都接受因病请假，用感冒作为缺席的借口是很合乎情理的。

Therefore, we need additional evidence indicating whether people asking for absence have lied about the reasons. 因此，我们需要更多证据来说明人们是否会在请假理由上说谎。

If new evidence shows that colds do play as crucial role in absenteeism, the we are disposed to believe that the author's conclusion is advisable. 如果新的证据表明感冒确实引起了大量的旷工和旷课，那么我们趋向于相信作者的建议是可取的。

On the contrary, if teh evidence shows us the contrary, then we remain doubtful of the recommendation given in the argument. 反之，如果证据表明事实恰恰相反，那么我们队这一建议存疑。

Even if new evidence is provided to demonstrate both fish's efficiency in preventing colds as well as the contribution colds make towards local absenteeism, we need more information to show that Ichthaid is as effective, if not more, as fish in the prevention of colds. 即使新的证据证明了鱼能有效预防感冒且感冒导致了大量旷工和旷课，我们仍然需要更多的证据来证明Ichthaid在预防感冒上比直接吃鱼更有效或至少一样有效。

Specifically, we need to know whether fish's ability to prevent colds originates in its oil and not in any other parts such as the bones. 具体而言，我们需要知道是否鱼油而不是鱼的其他部位，比如鱼骨，在预防感冒上发挥作用。

Moreover, it would be of great help to know whether elements in fish remain functional after a series of artificial processes. 此外，鱼所含有的元素在加工之后是否仍然有效也将帮助我们评估该建议。

In addition, the author would benefit from clarifying the relationship between the usage of Ichthaid and its efficiency in preventing colds. 不仅如此，通过解释清楚Ichthaid的用法和它对预防感冒的有效性也会帮助作者更好地阐述观点。

If it is fish's bone instead of fish oil that prevents colds, or artificially processed medicine lags in efficiency, or overuse of Ichthaid is found to be counterproductive, then the author's conclusion is weakened and the recommendation should therefore be rejected. 如果不是鱼油而是鱼骨能预防感冒，加工将会降低该物质的有效性或过度使用Ichthaid会适得其反，那么作者的论点就会被削弱，而他/她的建议也不应该被采纳。

Otherwise, it should be encouraged. 否则，作者的建议应当被采纳。

To sum up, the current information available in this argument does not sufficiently substantiate that the proposed usage of Ichthaid will preclude colds in schools and workplaces and further lower local absenteeism.

As a result, we need more evidence to better evaluate the writer's recommendation.

Misrepresent Reading habits? - 85

In a study of the reading habits of Waymarsh citizens conducted by the University of Waymarsh, most respondents said that they preferred literary classics as reading material.

However, a second study conducted by teh same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Waymarsh was the mystery novel.

Therefor, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

In this argument, the author concludes that there is a discrepancy between two studies concerning the reading habits of Waymarsh citizens.

In the first study, respondents exhibited a great interest in literary classics as reading material;

However, the second study revealed that mystery novels were most frequently checked out in public libraries.

Consequently, the writer attributes the inconsistency to a misrepresentation of reading habits by respondents in the first study.

However, I remain doubtful of this conclusion and require more evidence to substantiate it.

First of all, despite the presence of these two studies, we need more evidence to demonstrate their validity. 首先，尽管有这两项调查的存在，我们仍需要更多的证据来证明这两项调查的有效性。

That is to say, additional evidence is required to determine whether such two studies accurately reflect readers' reading habits. 也就是说，我们需要更多证据来证明这两项调查是否如实反映了读者的阅读习惯。

For the first study, the author would benefit from ruling out the possibility that the questions were biased and therefore induced the respondents to give answers in ways that did not accurately reveal their true reading habits. 就第一项调查而言，作者没有考虑到调查问题可能存在偏差，因此没能问出受访者真正的阅读习惯。

More specifically, we need to know what aspects of books they assign most significance to: contents, designs of covers or prices, for example. 具体而言，我们需要知道问题中他们把图书的哪些方面排在优先级较高的位置，例如内容、封面设计、或是价格。

If new evidence helps to preclude such a probability that the interviewed citizens in the first study wre biased, then the author's conclusion is strengthened; otherwise the argument is undermined. 如果新的证据能排除第一项调查的存在偏差的可能，那么作者的论断就更为可信；反之，就不那么可信。

What is more, the author should provide evidence to confirm the validity of the second study. 此外，作者还需要提供证据来证明第二项调查的有效性。

First, the more fact that mystery novels are most frequently checked out of the public libraries does not necessarily serve as an indicator of people's reading interests. 第一，公立图书馆中最常被借出的书是悬疑小说并不一定能表明人们的阅读兴趣所在。

Thus, we need to know whether people borrowed books from public libraries for other reasons, such as assisting with school assignments. 我们需要知道人们是否因为其他理由而从图书馆借书，比如用来完成学校作业。

If specific evidence shows us that reading interests did not even play a significant, if not unique, role in influencing people's checking out behavior in libraries, then the argument is weakened and the respondents in the first study were truthful. 如果特定证据表明人们在图书馆借书时，阅读兴趣并不是唯一的理由甚至不是重要的理由，那么作者的推理将不那么可信，第一项调查中的受访者则是可信的。

Second, as a matter of fact, people who are fans of a certain book genre do not always need to check out those books but can instead read them in the library. 第二，喜欢某类书籍的人们并不一定要借出这些书，而可以在图书馆中阅读。

If evidence proves this scenario true, then the argument is seriously questioned; in other circumstances, however, the argument is lent great support to. 如果这一猜想是正确的，那么作者的论证是十分可疑的；反之，作者的论证则得到了强化。

Third, while the first study focused on Waymarsh citizens, the second study apparently narrowed its focus to those who borrowed books from the public libraries. 第三，第一项调查聚焦于Waymarsh市民，而第二项调查则缩小了范围，只包括从公立图书馆借书的人。

Therefore, it is likely that people who enjoy literary classics could borrow books from private libraries or buy ones directly form bookstores. 因此，那些喜爱文学经典的人可能从私立图书馆借书或者直接从书店买书。

If new evidence is provided to exclude such a possibility the I would be inclined to believe that the author's conclusion; 如果新的证据能够排除这一可能性，那么我倾向于相信作者的结论；

Otherwise I remain unconvinced of the argument. 复制，我对该结论存疑。

Even if the results from the two studies accurately reveal the readers' authentic reading habits and these two results are inconsistent, we need further evidence to demonstrate that this inconsistency is a direct result of respondents deliberately misrepresenting their reading habits. 即使这两项调查的结果准确地揭示了读者真实的阅读习惯而双方的结论大相径庭，我们也需要更多的证据来证明这一矛盾是由读者有意歪曲他们的阅读习惯所导致的。

Since we are not informed with the length of time between the two studies, we cannot be sure that people's reading habits did not change during this period. 由于我们并不知道这两项调查之间的时间间隔，无法确定人们的阅读习惯在这段时间内没有改变。

If new evidence shows that literary classics lost their dominance during this period, then the respondents in the first study were actually telling the truth when they stated that they preferred literary classics, which does not contradict the second survey's subsequent results that mystery novels were borrowed from public libraries more than literary classics were. 如果新的证据表明在这段时间内文学经典已不再是人们的最爱，那么第一项调查中的受访者表明他们偏爱文学经典并没有说谎，这和第二项调查中，相比文学经典人们更多借阅悬疑小说的结论并不构成矛盾。

To draw a conclusion, we need further proof to from a better evaluation of the argument.

Only after weighing all of the evidence which serve to weaken the conclusion as well as those supporting the argument, can we come to a decision about the soundness of this argument.

Explanation

Relaxed Pace of Life - 92

Workers in the small town of Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in the large city of Masonton, 50 miles away.

Moreover, relative to population size, the diagnosis of stress-related illness is proportionally much lower in Leeville than in Masonton.

According to the Leeville Chamber of Commerce, these facts can be attributed to the health benefits of the relatively relaxed pace of life in Leeville.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanations(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

In this argument, we are informed that workers in Leeville take fewer sick days than workers in Masonton, a large city than Leeville.

Also, a smaller proportion of people in Leeville are diagnosed with stress-related illness.

The Leeville Chamber of Commerce attributes these two facts to the health benefits of the relatively relaxed pace of life in Leeville.

While I concede that such a lifestyle could result in a healthier physical and mental state, I maintain that other plausible explanation can also account for the facts presented in this argument.

However, with only the current information, we are unable to decide which explanation is best.

Nor is it utterly certain that one factor alone is responsible for the facts presented in the argument.

To begin with, the Chamber of Commerce that Leeville workers take fewer sick days due to better health. 首先，商会宣称Leeville的工人因为身体更好所以更少请病假。

While I admit that this might be the case, I also argue that fewer sick days taken by the local workers do not necessarily spring from a healthier state. 虽然我承认这可能是事实，但我要指出当地工人请病假更少不一定是因为他们更健康。

Absence of significant information contributes to the failure to rule out the possibility that workers would still attend work even if they were seriously ill. 关键信息的缺失让我们无法排除工人是否会带病上班。

More specifically, the workers' limited absence from work in Leeville may not lie in their satisfactory health conditions, but could be ascribed to a strict or even harsh working discipline. 更具体而言，Leeville的工人更少缺勤可能不是因为他们的健康状态更好，而是因为他们的工作纪律十分严格乃至过于严苛。

What is of equal possibility is that Leeville's workers themselves are reluctant to take sick days, which could be explained by their extraordinary passion for jobs. 同样有可能的是Leeville的工人自身不愿意请病假，比如他们对工作抱有超凡的热情。

In addition, it will be unfair to keep blind to the possible scenario wherein the comparatively smaller number of sick days taken by workers in Leeville could also derive from Leeville's sparse population of local workers. 此外，我们不能对Leeville人口更少的可能性视而不见，相对更少的员工可能是更少的病假天数的原因。

All of the aforementioned explanations pose a great challenge upon, if not utterly reverse, the proposed one in the argument. 上述解释即使没有推翻作者的论点，也至少对其提出了巨大的挑战。

In addition, the author ascribes a lower proportion of diagnoses of stress-related illness in Leeville to the relaxed pace of life. 此外，作者将Leeville更低的压力相关疾病的诊断比例归功于当地轻松的生活节奏。

However, the proportion of diagnoses alone does not sufficiently indicate a healthier state of people in Leeville. 然而，仅靠诊断比例并不能充分说明Leeville人生活得更加健康。

The lower proportion could also be explained by unsatisfactory medical resources in Leeville, both in terms of the number of hospitals and the capabilities of local doctors. 更低的诊断比例可能是由于Leeville不尽人意的医疗资源所造成的，包括医院数量和医生的水平。

If this is this case, then the relaxed pace of life in Leeville is less responsible, if at all, for local people's excellent health, since Leeville citizens could be suffering from a variety of diseases, which have been neither diagnosed nor treated. 如果是这种情况，Leeville轻松的生活节奏不一定能促进本地人的健康，因为Leeville市民可能患有各种疾病，这些疾病既没有被诊断出也没有获得治疗。

Even if workers in Leeville are indeed healthier than workers in Masonton, it is doubtful that the relaxed pace of life is the only factor responsible. 即使Leeville的工人比Masonton的工人更健康，轻松的生活节奏能否是唯一的原因也是存疑的。

Generally speaking, good physical and mental states stem from a variety of factors: appealing environment, pleasant social relationships, and healthy diets, to name a few. 一般来说，良好的身心健康取决于多种因素——仅举激励，吸引人的环境、愉快的社会关系、健康的饮食。

While we cannot assert that these factors are present and lead directly to local people's good health, we are confident that these explanations could rival the one proposed in the argument. 虽然外面无法断言这些因素都存在并直接提高了当地人的健康质量，至少这些理由可以和文中提到的解释一较高下。

To summarize, although it is reasonable to believe that a relaxed lifestyle contributes to better health in Leeville, there are several alternative explanations that could challenge the author;s one and can also plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

However, it is unreasonable to draw hasty conclusions about which explanations is best until further examination concerning Leeville town is performed.

Rest Time and Safety - 104

The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of a manufacturing company.

During the past year, workers at our newly opened factory reported 30 percent more on-the-job accidents than workers at nearby Panoply Industries. | | Panoply produces products very similar to those produced at our factory, but its work shifts are one hour shorter thant ours. | | Experts say that fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers are significant contributing factors in many on-the-job accidents. | | Panoply's superior safety record can therefore be attributed to its shorter work shifts, which allow its employees to get adequate amounts of rest.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanations(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

In the memo, the vice president describes the coincidence between a higher rate of on-the-job accidents at his/her factory and a shorter work shift at nearby Panoply Industries.

The vice presidents further ascribes the lower number of accidents to the shorter work time.

While this might be the case, we cannot easily ignore other explanations which could rival the proposed one endorsed by the vice president.

To begin with, while we could readily attribute the lower rate of on-the-job accidents at Panoply Industries to a higher level of safety, this is not the only explanation. 首先，尽管我们可以轻易地将Panoply工业公司较低的操作事故率归因于他们更高的生产安全性，但这并不是唯一的解释。

Since we do not know the total number of workers at Panoply, we cannot rule out the possibility that a smaller number of employees at Panoply contribute to its comparatively lower rate of accidents. 因为我们并不知道在Panoply工作的工人数目，因此无法排除更少的员工导致相对更低的事故率这样的可能。

In addition, we should be cautious of the word report, which is highly subjective and relies heavily on the kinds of accidents reported. 此外，我们也应谨慎对待“报告”这个词，这是一个非常主观的词，并且很大程度上依赖于哪些事故种类被选择“报告”。

Therefore, the lower rate of accidents at Panoply could hav resulted from Panoply concealing accidents or could be due to different accidents-reporting standards. 因此，Panoply更低的事故率可能是因为他们隐瞒了事故或采集了不同的标准来决定是否报告事故。

Either of these two explanations, once proves true, could easily compete the one proposed by the vice president. 若这两种解释中的任何一种为真，那么副总裁所提出的解释便站不住脚了。

Even if Panoply is safer than the vice president's factory, it is hasty to attribute this safety solely to its shorter work shifts. 即使Panoply比副总裁所在的工厂更为安全，我们也不能轻易地认为是更短的轮岗时间提高了生产的安全性。

Generally speaking, a safe working environment originates in a variety of factors: well-experienced employees, advanced and easily operated devices, and scrupulous supervision, any of which could exert a positive influence upon the improvement of safety level of working conditions at Panoply. 一般而言，工作环境是否安全取决于多种因素：经验丰富的员工、先进且易于操作的设备、严格的监督——其中任何一个都可能提高了Panoply的工作环境的安全水平。

Without further information, we cannot unhesitatingly preclude the possibility that Panoply's safe environment stems from any of the aforementioned factors, or a combination of these factors. 在没有进一步的信息前，我们不能完全排除Panoply安全的生产环境是由上述一个或几个因素促成的。

Thereby it is ill-conceived to solely credit Panoply's safe working conditions to shorter shifts. 因此单纯把Panoply安全的生产环境归功于更短的轮岗时间有欠考虑。

Granted that no other factors contribute to the safe environment at Panoply, the causal relationship between shorter work shifts and fewer accidents is open to doubt. 即使我们假定并没有其他因素促成Panoply安全的生产环境，更短的轮岗时间和更少的事故数的因果关系也是存疑的。

In this memo, citing the experts' words, the vice president implies that in his/her factory, it is the insufficient sleep, which derives from more accidents 在这份备忘录中，副总裁援引了专家的话，认为在他/她的工厂中，较长的轮岗时间让工人睡眠不足，由此导致的疲劳和缺乏睡眠引发了更多的事故。

However, even if the experts' words are trustworthy, it is likely that even if the work shifts were shortened, workers at the vice president's factory would spend the time doing other things rather than sleeping. 然而，即使专家的话是可信的，尽管缩短了轮岗时间，工人们有可能不会花时间睡觉，而是做其他事。

Consequently they will not be energetic and the high rate of accidents wil remain unchanged. 因此他们不会变得精力充沛，而事故率也将居高不下。

Likewise, it is of equal possibility that workers at Panoply do not spend their free time sleeping and accordingly suffer fatigue and sleep deprivation as much as workers in the vice president's factory do. 同样的，Panoply的工人可能也没有把时间用来睡觉，和该副总裁工厂的工人们一样疲劳且缺乏睡眠。

That is to say, the larger number of accidents in the vice president's factory could have resulted from workers' off-work activities. 也就是说，该工厂的事故可能是因为工人们下班后的活动所导致的。

I therefore reserve my approval of the vice president's claim which attributes the lower rate of accidents to shorter work shifts. 因此，我对副总裁的看法，即较短的轮岗时间降低事故率，持保留意见。

To summarize, while a shorter work shift may plausibly account for a lower rate of on-the-job accidents.

I remain open to different explanations that also help to illustrate the facts presented in this argument.

Unless the vice president offers clarification, I remain doubtful that his/her explanation is only possibility.

The Extinction of the Mammal Species - 165

Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands were extinct.

Previous archaeological findings have suggested that early humans generally relied on both fishing and hunting for food;

since archaeologists have discovered numerous sites in the Kaliko Islands where the bones of fish wre discarded. it is likely that the humans also hunted the mammals.

Furthermore, researchers have uncovered simple tools, such as stone knives, that could be used for hunting.

The only clear explanation is that humans caused the extinction of the various mammal species through excessive hunting.

Write a response in which you discuss one or more alternative explanations that could rival the proposed explanation and explain how your explanations(s) can plausibly account for the facts presented in the argument.

In the argument, we are informed that humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands around 7,000 years ago and that these inhabitants witnessed the ensuing extinction of large mammals species in the forests of the Islands within the subsequent 3000 years.

Referring to archaeological discoveries, such as fish bones, as well as simple tools like stone knives, the author ascribes the extinction of the various mammal species to excessive human hunting.

Reasonable though this explanation might appear, we cannot safely claim that it is the only ine that can reasonably account for the facts presented in the argument.

Therefore, we must thoroughly consider the following explanations, which rival the proposed one in the argument.

To begin with, the writer attributes the discovery of fish bones to humans fishing in the Kaliko Islands. 首先，作者将鱼骨的发现归因于Kaliko岛上人类的捕鱼活动。

While human fishing might well have resulted in the fish bone remains, the latter could have also sprung from other factors. 虽然人类的捕鱼活动会残留下鱼骨，但鱼骨的出现也可能出自其他因素。

First of all, it is likely that the unearthed fish bones trace back to a period when human habitation was scarce, or non-existent. 第一，这些地下鱼骨可能上溯到人类还很少或根本还没来的时期。

If this is the case, then human behaviors had little to do with te fish bone remains and teh subsequent mammal extinction. 如果是这样的的话，那么人类的行为和鱼骨的残骸以及之后的哺乳动物的灭绝就是无关的。

Consequently, the fish bones can be explained as stemming from the fish's natural death and eventual deposit ont he sites later discovered. 因此，鱼骨残骸可能是由于鱼群的自然死亡并沉积在之后发现的遗址上所造成的。

Second, even if human occupancy in the Kaliko Islands does correspond with the fish habitation, the fish bones cannot be exclusively attributed to human fishing. 第二，即使当时已有大量人类在Kaliko岛上居住，也不能将鱼骨完全归因于人类的捕鱼活动。

Instead, it is of equal likelihood that other animals also caught and ate fish and thus contributed to the disappearance of various mammals in the Kaliko Islands. 相反，其他动物同样有可能捕食鱼类并导致Kaliko岛上各种哺乳动物的消失。

Once tha assertion that Kaliko people relied on fishing proves unwarranted, the underlying logic would be weakened, namely; 只要Kaliko人依赖捕鱼为生这一断论被证明是站不住脚的，作者得出结论的潜在逻辑也就被削弱了，即

if Kaliko relied on fishing, they must also have had a dependence on hunting the mammals. 如果Kaliko人依赖捕鱼为生，他们也会狩猎哺乳动物。

In addition, the uncovered simple tools, including stone knives, lend great support to the arguer's explanation that the annihilation of mammal species arises from human hunting. 此外，发现包括石刀在内的简单工具支持了作者的观点——人类的狩猎活动导致哺乳动物的灭绝。

However, those tools might not have necessarily been used for the stated purpose, but presumably for other reasons as well. 然而，这些工具未必如作者声称的那样用于捕猎，而可能有其他用途。

For instance, humans living in the Kaliko Islands could have used those tools to document what they had passed through day in and day out or those tools could have been made for aesthetic purposes. 例如，居住在Kaliko的人类用这些工具来计算时日或作为装饰。

Moreover, people could also have used those tools to protect themselves from animal attacks. 此外，人们还可能用这些工具来保护自己免受动物攻击。

Without further examination, we cannot decide which explanation finally led to the discovery of such tools. 在没有进一步考察之前，我们无法判定这些工具的用途。

It is even likely that all the aforementioned factors might have conspired to the finding of those tools. 甚至，有可能这些工具包含了上述所有的用途。

Finally, even if we admit that the uncovered fish bones and those simple tools were used by humans to hunt mammals on the Kaliko Islands, it is reckless to claim that human hunting has reached such an excessive degree that it directly contribute to the extermination of mammals. 最后，即使我们承认被发现的鱼骨和简单工具是Kaliko人用来狩猎哺乳动物的，我们也不能轻率地声称人类的狩猎肆意到直接导致了哺乳动物的灭绝。

Other explanations could readily rival the alleged one in the argument. 除了文中提到的观点，还有其他合理的解释。

Considerable climate change, which went beyond mammals' adaptation abilities, the vanishing of food resources on which those mammals relied, or attack by other animals are all possible factors that could have triggered or accelerated the mammal extinction in the Kaliko Islands. 剧烈的气候变化超出了哺乳动物的适应能力、哺乳动物赖以生存的事物来源的消失、其他动物的攻击，这些都可能导致或加速Kaliko岛上哺乳动物的灭绝。

To draw a conclusion, although human behavior could have exerted negative influence on nature in the absence of sufficient information, we cannot establish a casual relationship between it and waning of other animal species.

The extinction of mammals in the Kaliko Islands is such a case which requires more considerations of alternative explanations that could account for the facts presented in the argument.

Question

the Retail Sale of Home Heating Oil - 150

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. | | Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. | | Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. | | Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable.

Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In this letter to potential investors, the author recommends investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is residential heating oil, because of the anticipated greater demand of heating oil.

To support his/her claim, the author quotes the climate forecast indicating continuing harsh winter weather as well as the increasing number of houses being built in this region.

Quite convincing though his/her argument may seem at first glance, there are a number of questions regarding his/her lines of reasoning that requires further analysis.

THe argument could end up being pretty convincing or invalid in the end, depending on the answers in those questions.

To begin with, the author's reasoning relies heavily on the accuracy of the climate forecaster, a question that is not answered. 首先，作者的推理在很大程度上依赖于气候预报的准确性，但我们并不知道这个问题的答案。

It is possible that the predictions about future climate are completely wrong, because the Earth's climate system is highly complex and can change rather unpredictably. 对于未来天气的预测很有可能是完全错误的，因为地球的气候系统高度复杂，且变幻莫测。

Without additional information to evaluate future climate and winter weather conditions, it is possible that the northeastern United States could actually experience warmer winters. 我们没有额外的信息来评估未来的天气和冬季气候条件，有可能美国东北部正经历暖冬。

THis scenario would seriously challenge the predicated increase in oil demand, and render the author's recommendation much less advisable. 这种情况将严重挑战对石油需求增长的预测，并使得作者的建议并不那么可取。

On the other hand, any valid proof that the forecast is well founded will strengthen the author;s argument. 另一方面，任何有效的，能证明预测是有根据的证据则会加强作者的论点。

Grated that future climate will be extremely cold and given the fact that new houses are being built in this region, whether or not oil demand will increase in response to colder winters and increasing population needs a second look. 姑且认为未来气候将极端寒冷并鉴于该地区正在建造新房屋，我们需要再次考察更寒冷的天气和增长的人口是否会导致石油需求的增长。

Behind the author's argument lie two critical implied assertions. 作者的论点背后暗含着两个重要的主张。

The first one is that people will spend their winter in this very region, which could be wrong. 第一，人们会在此地度过冬天，这可能是错误的。

The possibility that people would migrate to warmer areas, such as the southeastern United States, during the winter to escape from the bitter cold must be considered and addressed. 我们必须考虑到并指出人们可能会在冬天迁徙到更温暖的地方，诸如美国东南部，来躲避严寒。

Yet, if the author can provide information to unequivocally demonstrate that a substantial number of people live in the northeast during the winter his/her conclusion will hae weight. 然而，如果作者能够提供信息，明确证明相当数量的居民会在冬天仍会住在东北部，那么我们应当重视作者的结论。

Furthermore, the second assertion is that oil will remain the major fuel for heating in the future. 此外，第二个主张是石油任然会是未来供暖的主要燃料。

Although in the past people have traditionally used oil for residential heating, the possibility that new heating methods may emerge cannot be excluded. 虽然在过去，人们传统上将石油用于住宅供暖，但我们不能排除出现新的取暖方法。

For example, residential heating powered by nuclear or solar energy may enter the market and begin to compete with traditional fossil fuels. 例如，有核能或太阳能供电的宅用暖气可能会进入市场并同传统的化石燃料展开竞争。

We have no clue if the dominance of oil in energy market will still persist. 我们不知道石油是否能够继续在能源市场上占据统治地位。

If no, the demand for oil is unlikely ot increase despite the fact that there is indeed a huge demand for residential heating. 如果不是这样的话，尽管对住宅供暖有大量的需求，但该地对石油的需求未必会增加。

On the other hand, increased oil demand can be expected from a continued heavy reliance on oil, creating favorable market conditions for Consolidated. 另一方面，如果人们依然严重依赖石油，那么对石油的需求的增长是可预期的，这位Consolidated公司创造了有利的市场条件。

Finally, even if we acknowledge for a moment that oil demand does rise in response to harsh weather and population growth, it remains to be seen whether Consolidated industries can capitalize on this as the author assumes. 最后，即使我们暂且承认严酷的天气和增长的人口会带来石油需求的增长，我们仍然需要考察Consolidated公司是否能如作者所言借此获利。

Other factors, such as management efficiency and local competitions could potentially affect Consolidated's financial performance. 诸如管理效率、本地竞争等其他因素可能会潜在影响Consolidated的财务表现。

If, for instance, Consolidated is poorly managed and there is widespread corruption within corporation, it is doubtful that Consolidated will be hugely profitable and worth investment. 例如，如果Consolidated管理不善，内部腐败丛生，你们Consolidated是否会获得巨大利润、是否值得投资，都是存疑的。

To sum up, although a cold, harsh climate and a rising population have the potential to elevate the demand for heating oil, this is not a conclusion that can be derived from the information available in this argument.

Furthermore, even if oil demand does rise, the investment recommendation is built upon a shaky assertion, which is still open to different possibilities.

Only after those questions are adequately addressed can we effectively evaluate the author's argument and reach a logically sound conclusion.

Profits Increase - 35

The following appeared in a letter from the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex to its manager.

One month ago, all the showerheads in the first three buildings of the Sunnyside Towers complex were modified to restrict maximum water flow to one-third of what it used to be. | | Although actual readings of water usage before and after the adjustment are not yet available, the change will obviously result in a considerable savings for Sunnyside Corporation, since the corporation must pay for water each month. | | Except for a few complaints about low water pressure, no problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment. | | I predict that modifying showerheads to restrict water flow throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex will increase our profits even more dramatically.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable.

Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In the letter, the owner of the Sunnyside Towers apartment complex predicts a dramatic profit increase for Sunnyside Corporation.

His/her prediction relies heavily on the seemingly pleasing results from showerhead modification in the first three building of the Sunnyside Towers complex.

In those buildings, the maximum water flow has been restricted to one-third of what it used to be.

While reducing the amount of shower water might be desirable both environmentally and financially, whether he author's prediction is reasonable hinges on the answers to the following questions.

The first series of questions I am going to put forward revolve around the actual consequences brought about by modifying the maximum water flow. 首先我要对改造最大水流量的实际成果提问。

More specifically, I need to ask what the exact water usage readings are before and after the adjustment. 更具体而言，我需要知道调整前和调整后确切的用水量读数。

Will people take longer showers now that the water flowers is restricted? 现在水流变小了，人们会花更长的时间来洗澡吗？

If the answer to this questions is positive, then a decrease in water usage is not safely guaranteed and therefore the writer's final prediction is open to doubt. 如果回答是肯定的，那么我们并不能保证用水量会减少，而作者的最终预测也会受到质疑。

On the contrary, if it turns out to be the other way around, then the prediction is strengthened instead. 相反，如果答案是否定的，那么作者的预测就显得更可信了。

In addition, while the arguer claims that few problems with showers have been reported since the adjustment, it is still a question whether one-month period of time is too short for all problems to have emerged; 此外，尽管作者声称在改造之后只收到了个别投诉，但一个月的时间还不足以暴露出所有问题；

have any problems or complaints been concealed or even suppressed? 住客的投诉是否被隐藏或压制了呢？

If the answer to either of these two questions is yes, then the argument's prediction is undermined; otherwise it is shored up. 如果这两个问题的答案有一个是肯定的话，那么作者的预测就会被推翻；反之，他/她的预测就更可信了。

Witnessing the seemingly positive result of the showerhead adaptation, the author further recommends a wider application of the adaptation to all the twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex. 在看到淋浴头改造看似喜人的成果后，作者进一步建议对向阳塔的12座公寓大楼都就行改造。

However, before reaching that conclusion, we need to know whether such a generalization is hasty. 然而，在得出这一结论之前，我们需要知道这样的推而广之是否是草率的。

The current fow complaints might derive from the possibility that people who wer not satisfied with the adaptation in the first three buildings went elsewhere for shower. 有可能前三栋楼里的人去了其他楼里洗澡，所以公寓方才没有收到太多投诉。

Therefore, we need to ask whether it is possible that once we implement the author's proposal and modify all the showerheads throughout all twelve buildings in the Sunnyside Towers complex, is the corporation going to lose the customers? 因此，我们需要问，一旦采纳了作者的建议在12栋楼里都改造了淋浴头，公司会不会损失他们的客户？

If it will unfortunately suffer from a great loss of customers, then the prediction in the argument is unreasonable; in other circumstances it is not. 如果公司会因为大量的改造失去了客户而蒙受损失，那么作者的建议是不合理的；在其他情况下，则可能是合理的。

Even if people accept the showerhead modifications, whether such modification surely leads to a growth in profits remains an unanswered question. 即使人们接受改造淋浴头，我们仍然不知道改造计划是否会带来利润的增长。

While we a re informed that the corporation pays for water each month and therefore the water fee may decline due to the showerhead adjustments, we have no information concerning the modification expenses. 我们知道公司每月付水费，因此改造淋浴头后水费会降低，但我们不知道公司为改造淋浴头要花多少钱。

Simply speaking, how od the saving resulting form the adjustments compare to the expense of adjusting them? 简单来说，改造所节省的水费和改造本身的费用孰多孰少？

If the savings are sight, then we cannot expect profits to rise and the author's recommendation should therefore be rejected, but if the savings are significant, then the proposal should be encouraged. 如果节省的费用是很少的，你们我们不能指望利润将会有所上升，而作者的建议也不会被采纳；但如果能节省的水费是十分可观的，那么作者的建议应该被采纳。

While I sympathize with the author's intention to reduce costs, whether we should resort to showerhead modification in all the buildings is subject to more consideration.

We especially need to know how people react to the modifications, the adjustment expenses, and the potential savings as a result of the modifications.

Abandon Tradition - 74

The president of Grove College has recommended that the college abandon its century-old tradition of all-female education and begin admitting men.

Pointing to other all-female colleges that experienced an increase in applications after adopting coeducation, the president argues that coeducation would lead to a significant increase in applications and enrollment.

However, the director of the alumnae association opposes the plan.

Arguing that all-female education is essential to the very identity of the college, the director cites annual surveys of incoming students in which these students say that the school's all-female status was the primary reason they selected Grove.

The director also points to a survey of Grove alumnae in which a majority of respondents strongly favored keeping the college all female.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable.

Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In this argument, a debate is presented between the president of Grove College and the director of alumnae association regarding abandonment of the college's century-old tradition of all-female education.

Supporting this recommendation, the president cites other all-female colleges that adopted a similar education system and witnessed a subsequent increase in applications.

On the opposite end of the spectrum is the director of the alumnae association who oppose the plan.

Citing opinions of Grove's incoming students and alumnae, both of whom endorse preserving the all-female tradition, the director argues that such a tradition is an essential college identity.

Plausible as both sides of this debate may appear, in order to decide which recommendation is most reasonable, we need to ask more questions and the answers to these questions might help us settle on the ultimate decision.

To begin with, we need to raise a series of questions and the answers to these questions might contribute to confirming the causal relationship between the coeducation system and the increase in applications. 首先，我们需要提出几个问题，这几个问题的答案能帮助我们确认男女同校的教育制度和申请数增长之间是否存在因果关系。

Firstly, even though we are informed that adoption of the coeducation system was followed by an increase in applications in some all-female colleges, we may still wonder whether such an increase could occur in this case. 第一，即使我们被告知在男女同校后，一些女子学校的申请数获得了增长，我们仍然需要知道这样的增长是否也会发生在Grove。

Normally, an application increase might spring from various factors, such as excellent faculty with strong academic backgrounds, and appealing campus, for example, and in most cases those factors conspire to influence whether students decide to apply. 通常而言，许多因素可能导致申请数的增长，比如有较强学术背景的优秀教师、引人入胜的校园；在大多数情况下，这些因素会共同作用，影响学生是否决定申请。

Therefore, unless the president gives a positive answer showing that adoption of the coeducation system is the only reason responsible for the applications increase, we remain unconvinced of such a system's efficiency in attracting students. 因此，除非校长能够给出肯定的回答，表明采用男女同校是导致申请增长的唯一原因，我们队男女同校能够有效吸引学生这一观点只能存疑。

Secondly, even if the aforementioned causal relationship is confirmed, we need to question whether Grove College will experience a similar application increase by adopting the coeducation system. 第二，即使我们确认了上述因果关系，我们还需质疑Grove学院采取男女同校后收到的申请是否会有相似的增长。

This question further behooves us to inquire the extent to which Grove College is analogical to other all-female colleges mentioned in the argument. 该问题进一步要求我们就Grove学院和文中提到的其他女校的相似程度提出疑问。

If the president provides answers to demonstrate sufficient similarities between those colleges and Grove College, then we are inclined to accept his/her recommendation/ 如果校长能够证明Grove和其他学校之间足够相似，那么我们趋向于接受他/她的建议。

Otherwise we reserve our approval. 否则我们将保留意见。

Similarly, we should also carefully ponder the director's assertion. 同样的，我们也需要仔细考虑校友会主任的观点。

Although the director shows us the incoming students' ardor for Grovel College's all-female status, we need to know how other students view such a status, since they may contribute to future application increase. 虽然主任表明了新生喜爱Grove的全女子教育，我们需要知道其他学生如何看待这一情况，因为这些人可能有助于在未来提高申请数。

If these potential students exhibit great interest in studying at Grovel even without the all-female status, then we should reconsider the director's claim and maybe initiate the coeducational system. 如果这些潜在的学生在全女子教育之外也对Grove表现出极大的热情，那么我们就需要再次斟酌主任的言论、并可能会开始实行男女同校。

Likewise, what we also need to know is whether the respondents of the alumnae survey stand representative. 同样的，我们还需要知道校友会调查的受访者是否具有代表性。

Since the survey may have been biased in terms of its design, we need to ask whether only those who favor the all-female education responded to the survey. 由于调查可能在设计方面存在偏差，我们需要质疑是否只有那些喜欢全女子教育的人回复了调查。

A positive answer to this questions renders the director's claim less convincing and a negative one lends it more credibility. 如果答案是肯定的，主任的主张就不那么可信；而如果答案是否定的，主任的主张就更为可信。

Finally, even if the president's and the director's assertions are sufficiently supported by authentic facts, in order to make a reasonable recommendation concerning the admission system of Grovel College, it is of great significance to take into consideration aspects other than application rate and college identity. 最后，即使事实充分支持了校长和主任的主张，为了对Grove的录取制度提出合理的建议，考虑申请率和大学认同感之外的方面也是十分重要的。

If extra factors, such as college reputation, matters as much as or more than the aforementioned two factors, then we should give second thought to the two speakers' recommendation. 如果其余因素，例如学校声誉，和上述两个因素同样重要或更为重要，我们就需要再次考虑两位发言者的建议了。

To sum up, despite the passionate proposals put forward by the president and director, as well as the respective reason they give, we should defer our conclusion about which is superior until the questions discussed above are carefully examined.

The Old Dairy - 76

The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.

Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. | | Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and company profits will no doubt decrease. | | We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable.

Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

In this newsletter, the author advises Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company.

To strengthen his/her recommendation, the author cites a recent survey, which indicated more than 80 percent of the respondents' desire to abstain from foods containing fats and cholesterol.

In addition, the abundance of current low-fat products in many food stores, as well as the great number of Old Dairy's high-fat and high-cholesterol products, are also given to support the predicted diminished sales and decreased profits of the company.

However, before we reach a final decision about whether or not this advice is reasonable, we first need to raise several questions, and the answers these questions would help us assess this proposal.

First of all, despite the survey indicating most respondents' desire to refrain from foods containing fats and cholesterol, we need to know whether this desire would directly lead to a decrease in the products of Old Dairy Industries. 首先，尽管调查显示大多数受访者希望避免摄入含脂肪和胆固醇的食物，我们需要知道这种想法是否真的会减少OD产品的销售额。

Specifically, we need to ask: are the respondents swayed by other factors when selecting foods, such as flavor or price? 具体而言，我们需要问：受访者在挑选食物时是否还会受到其他因素如口味或价格的影响？

Also, are the respondents able to distinguish the foods containing fats and cholesterol from those that do not? 此外，受访者们是否能够甄别不含脂肪和胆固醇的食物？

If flavor and price do influence the respondents' purchase behavior more than nutritional elements do; or if the respondents cannot tell difference between high-fact and high-cholesterol foods and other foods, a definite decline in high-fat and high-cholesterol foods of Old Dairy would not be guaranteed, and the author's suggestion is undermined. 如果口味和价格比营养元素对受访者的影响更大，或受访者无法甄别高脂、高胆固醇的事物，那么我们不能保证OD高脂、高胆固醇产品的销量将会显著降低，而作者的建议也就不那么合理了。

Otherwise, the conclusion of the argument may be verified and the advice is reasonable. 若答案是肯定的，那么作者的结论将被证实，而他/她的建议也是合理的。

Secondly, even though the author informs us that many food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, he/she would benefit from clarifying the question what fraction do these products comprise of all foods produced by Old Dairy Industries? 其次，尽管作者告诉我们OD目前销售的许多产品都是高脂、高胆固醇的，阐明这一问题对他/她的论点不无裨益：这些食物在OD生产的所有食品中占多少比例？

Or, more specifically, does Old Dairy Industries also produce low-fat and low-cholesterol foods? 更具体而言，OD是否也生产低脂、低胆固醇的食品？

If the answer is yes, then even if the foods containing high fats and cholesterol might suffer from a decline in sales, this decline could probable be offset by an increase in sales of the company's low-fat nad low-cholesterol products. 如果回答是肯定的，那么即使高脂、高胆固醇食品的销量会下降，这部分的损失也可以被增长的低脂、低胆固醇食品的销量抵消。

As a result, the company's overall sales would not witness a decrease and neither would their profits. 因此，公司的整体销售额和利润未必会下降。

However, if Old Dairy Industries relies heavily on sales of high-fat and high-cholesterol foot, then the company is subjected to a significant decrease in both sales and profits. 然而，如果OD极为依赖于销售高脂、高胆固醇食品，那么公司的销售额和利润就会大幅下降。

Finally, granted that low-fat and low-cholesterol foods may come to dominate the food market and Old Dairy Industries mainly products foods with high fats and high cholesterol, before deciding whether Old Dairy Industries is worth investing in, we need to know the company's intent. 最后，即使我们姑且认为低脂、低胆固醇食品将会主导食品市场且OD主要生产高脂、高胆固醇食品，在决定OD是否值得投资前，我们还需要知道公司的打算。

That is to say, we need to ask: will the company change its strategy and main products in the future? 也就是说，公司将来会改变它的战略和主打产品吗？

If Old Dairy is flexible in its strategy and can therefore efficiently exchange its products in order to appeal to those favoring low-fat and low-cholesterol foods, we may advise stockholders against selling shares and the persuade other to invest. 如果OD采用灵活的战略，能够有效改变它的产品以吸引喜欢低脂、低胆固醇食品的顾客，我们也不会建议股东出售股票并建议其他人进行投资。

If the opposite is true, then we may encourage Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares, and at the same time deter others investors from purchasing stock in this company. 如果事实恰恰相反，那么我们可能会建议OD的股东出售股票，同时让其他投资人打消购买OD股票的想法。

To sum up, although the financial market fluctuates greatly, we should not make hasty decisions in response to every erratic market change.

In order to decide whether the recommendation in the argument is reasonable, we need to ask the aforementioned questions and the answers to the questions would contribute to a better evaluation of the proposal.